After three years of front-loaded capital expenditure into AI infrastructure, 2026 is being framed as the year when enterprises should begin to demonstrate AI-related pilot programmes into real value creation.

Even as data centres and associated infrastructure spend remains robust (with many forecasts projecting USD$400-600 billion this year), research houses are flagging an important transition from “build” to “monetise”.

This duality – expanding spend yet rising return on investment scrutiny – is the core investment tension for 2026.

The key Big Tech players in the AI space (Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Oracle, Apple, Nvidia, and Broadcom have managed to continue producing robust return on investment, helping to maintain their edge in the AI narrative.

These key players also continue to outpace the broader US market in terms of earnings momentum. Consensus expectations point to the group’s earnings growth of roughly 22% in 2026 and 2027, which should help to preserve the group’s valuations despite their capital spending intensity.

While the AI investment narrative remains a core focus in the portfolios, we invest along the value chain to ensure prudent diversification within this theme. These investments are also blended with other long-term structural investment themes with strong tailwinds that are also geographically diversified.

In the coming editions of Basis Points, we’ll be delving deeper into the areas of the AI value chain and other peripheral themes for 2026.

What we’re reading: 2026 Investment Outlook | BlackRock